Medicare Advantage Increases Continue in Year-Over-Year Review

January 19, 2023 (Revised 1/25/23)

The Medicare Open Enrollment Period (OEP) for Medicare Advantage (MA) and prescription drug plans (PDPs), runs each year from October 15^th through December 7^th. Early results show steady increases year-over-year from January 2019 to January 2023 for MA enrollment, while PDP enrollment continues its downward trend. Aggregate MA enrollment is 30.8 million, and stand-alone PDP enrollment is 22.7 million. While January data does not reflect the full OEP results, current enrollment is based on the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS’s) January 1, 2023, payment, which reflects January enrollments accepted through December 2, 2022. Many companies conduct their post-enrollment period competitive assessments by using tools such as Mark Farrah Associates’ (MFA) Medicare Business Online™ and Health Coverage Portal™. This brief illustrates MA and PDP performance from January 2019 to January 2023.

• Overall Medicare Eligibles increased from 63.8 million in January of 2022 to 65.1 million in January 2023, up 2%; from January 2019 to January 2020, the net gain was 2.7%.
• As of January 1, 2023, total MA membership stood at 30,799,545, with a net gain of 1.8 million members from January 1, 2022.
• Medicare PDPs accounted for 22,668,613 covered lives, as of January 1, 2023, representing a loss of over 2.5 million from January 1, 2020, just prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic; down -10.1% over the three-year period.

About this Data

This brief is based on an analysis of early enrollment data for Medicare Advantage (MA) and prescription drug plans (PDPs) released by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Totals reflect enrollment as of the January 1, 2023 payment. The payment reflects January enrollments accepted through December 2, 2022. In addition to the OEP mentioned above, there is a second Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment period from January 1 through March 31, when MA enrollees can switch to another MA plan or drop their MA plan and return to Original Medicare. Full results of the annual election periods will be available in the April/May time frame. Mark Farrah Associates’ Medicare Business Online™ simplifies the tracking of monthly Medicare Advantage and PDP enrollment by competitor. Enrollment data is updated monthly as soon as CMS releases new data. Additionally, using MFA’s Medicare Benefits Analyzer (MBA), health companies are comparing and analyzing 2023 benefit packages and developing strategies to offer 2024 products that will attract and benefit seniors while ensuring the company is not adversely selected.

About Mark Farrah Associates (MFA)

Mark Farrah Associates (MFA) is a leading data aggregator and publisher providing health plan market data and analysis tools for the healthcare industry. Our product portfolio includes Health Coverage Portal™, County Health Coverage™, Medicare Business Online™, Medicare Benefits Analyzer™, 5500 Employer Health ^PLUS, and Health Plans USA™. For more information about these products, refer to the informational videos and brochures, available under the Our Products section of the website (www.markfarrah.com) or call 724-338-4100.

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